Part 3: FULL TEXT OF ARTICLE: Giving meaning to unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes ; FINAL FULL PAPER HERS WORKSHOP, by Djokowoerjo Sastradipradja
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EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
As previously stated that earthquakes are associated with natural physicochemical changes, hence several of them may be selected to be advanced for prediction purposes. Scientist use data from a network of seismographs connected to each other to gather sophisticated detailed, measurements of earthquakes around the world. However, these networks help very little with earthquake predictions, since they only measure quakes that happen. Scientist can use other methods to get an idea where earthquakes are likley to happen.
Nowadays scientists are using sophisticated devices such as lazers and satelites systems to predict how faults are moving. Though this attempt is not earthquake prediction in the real sense, the information however is giving scientists better ideas of where earthquakes are going to occur in the future, and can help people prepare for the eventual earthquake. Predicting earhquakes is not yet possible for scientists to do, but they hope that they will one day find a way. Although scientists can not predict them now, sometimes scientits know what regions an earthquake might hit. What they do is use the information from previous earthquakes to figure out a region it might hit. Siesmologists look out closely on certain selected places where giant earthquakes are expected.
In their comprehensive overview on the topic of earthquake prediction, Miller and Lonetree (2013) [3] discussed the basics of developing methods of earthquake prediction by historically analyzing the events one by one through longterm monitoring of the physicochemical characteristics of the forces underlying the events aiming at detecting tectonic strain and electromagnetic signals indicative of potential earthquake activity. Starting around year 2000, Ben Lonetree has been monitoring several parameters of geophysical and solar activity with his “custom system and proprietary software”. On numerous occasions he has been able to detect tension/strain originating at various levels within earth's crust at both local and globally remote locations. He suggests that duplicating and triangulating his monitoring system would immensely improve data collection and evaluation that could lead to highly improved quake prediction and targeting, potentially permitting life-saving counteractive measures. He reports detecting signals as long as two days in advance of sorting major seismic activity. Most suggested precursory earthquake anomalies were recorded unintentionally by observing systems established for other purposes. The following phase of the research [3] is testing a triangulated system. The aim of the approach is to get a low-cost means for significant electromagnetic monitoring and Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling. Duplication, distribution, and triangulation of such monitoring systems could significantly improve earthquake monitoring, detecting, and prediction. Triangulation is the process of pinpointing the location of something by taking bearings to it from two remote points. Triangulation from duplicate monitoring stations could help find and map areas at risk in advance. The last phase of the "Lonetree Protocol" is a research agenda proposal that outlines wider application and testing of the theory and system, with atmospheric and terrestrial recordings, as well as satellite missions. A proposal have next been submitted of setting up a network of 12 ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULF EM) recording sites. One measure is to install them in existing seismic stations. Transportable recording systems could be deployed in rapid response mode in the aftershock region of a major earthquake to record post-seismic EM activity. A reference station should be located in seismically inactive area with relatively low artificial noise. A final comment on Miller & Lonetree’s overview [3] is the list of keywords used for discussion and analysis, such as: geophysics, electromagnetics emission (EME), tectonic strain, earthquakes, geomagnetic anomalies, fault mechanics, short-impending prediction, magnetometer, piezoelectrics, ULF, magnetoreception, faultlines, seismic waves, p-holes, ULF, pre-seismic transients, magnetoseismology, magnetometer networks. The readers are recommended to read the treatise for better insight.
With the advent of modern science and technology the list of premonitory signals has become longer. Among them are
⦁ Sporadic emissions of low to ultra low-frequency electromagnetic radiation from the ground
⦁ Occasional local magnetic field anomalies reaching a strength of half a percent of the earth's main dipole field
⦁ Changes in the lower atmosphere that are accompanied by the formation of haze and a reduction of moisture in the air
⦁ Large patches, often tens to hundreds of thousands of square kilometers in size, seen in night-time infrared satellite images where the land surface temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly
⦁ Passing perturbations in the ionosphere at 90 - 120 km altitude that affect the transmission of radio waves
UNUSUAL PRE-EARTHQUAKE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR
Noticable numbers of unusual behavior of animals have been observed at the Indonesian Safari Park (TSI) Cisarua-Bogor, 10-15 minutes prior to the 7.3 Richter Scale earthquake of West Java on September 2nd, 2009 [4]. Earthworms surfaced in large numbers out of their burial grounds accompanied the Yogyakarta earthquake of May 27th 2006 [5]. These stories add to the accumulated global anecdotal reports on the subject, mostly in newspapers, since antiquity, but recent studies in many reputable laboratories indicate that these unusual natural phenomena may have a scientific background and application to use the phenomena for earthquake prediction is warranted. It was with this objective in mind that the AIPI-Commissions for basic science and of culture have reviewed the issue and reported the results in bookform entitled (English translation) “Giving Meaning to Unusual Animal Behavior Before Earthquakes”[7].
The earliest reference we have to unusual animal behavior prior to a significant earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC. Rats, snakes, and centipedes reportedly left their homes and headed for safety several days before a destructive earthquake. Anecdotal evidence florisshes of animals, fish, birds, reptiles, and insects demonstrating strange behavior anywhere from weeks to seconds prior to an earthquake. Consistent and reliable behavior prior to seismic events, and a mechanism explaining how it could work, still puzzles us, however. Most of the scientists interested in revealing this mystery reside in China or Japan [1].
The cause of unusual animal behavior seconds before humans feel an earthquake can be easily explained. Very few humans notice the smaller P wave that travels the fastest from the earthquake source and arrives before the larger S wave. But many animals with more sharpened senses are able to feel the P wave seconds before the S wave arrives. As for sensing an impending earthquake days or weeks before it occurs, another explanation must be given.
In the US, an alleged theory once grew quite popularly, that there was a correlation between Lost Pet adverticements in the San Jose Mercury News and the dates of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area [6]. A thorough statistical analysis of this theory, published in California Geology in 1988, concluded that there was no such correlation, however [8]. Another article published in the US on this subject by a respected scientist [9] is summarized along the following lines. The article poses the question: Is it reasonable for a seismic-escape behavior pattern to evolve, and can such a genetic system be maintained despite selection pressures operating on the time scales of damaging seismic events? All animals instinctively respond to escape from predators and to preserve their lives. A wide variety of vertebrates already express “early warning” behaviors that we understand for other types of events, so it’s possible that a seismic-escape response could have evolved from this already-existing genetic prearrangement. An instinctive response following a P-wave seconds before a larger S wave is not a big jump as you might say, but what about other precursors that may occur days or weeks before an earthquake that we don’t yet know about? If indeed there are precursors to a significant earthquake that we have yet to learn about (such as ground tilting, groundwater changes, electrical or magnetic field variations), indeed it’s possible that some animals could sense these signals and connect the perception with an impending earthquake.
We will mention 4 notewothy events of global unusual animal behavior phenomena and earthquake related research that have potential to be further explored for practical earthquake prediction and to provide guidelines to community preparedness. The cases we choose are:
⦁ The community observation system during the 1975 Haicheng earthquake measuring 7.3 on the ⦁ Richter ⦁ Scale occurred on February 4, 1975 in Haicheng, Liaoning, ⦁ China, a city of approximately 1 million residents. Local political leaders ordered evacuations a day before the earthquake took place. The alertness for the coming earthquake stems from the many reports by people in the area of numerous unusual animal behavior including those of snakes awaken from their winter sleep\ and exposing themselves to the cold winter environment lying on the frozen earth and died. This successful evacuation was the only successful evacuation before a devastating earthquake in history which saved many lives. It should be remembered however, that the event in question occurred during the cultural revolution of China, where the government had powerfull control of the country [10].
⦁ The Chinese began to study systematically the unusual animal behavior, and the Haicheng earthquake of February 1975 was predicted successfully as early as in mid-December of 1974. The most unusual animal behavior was that of snakes came out of hibernation and froze on the surface of the earth. Also observed were a group of rats appeared. All these were succeeded by a swarm of earthquakes at the end of December 1974. The following month of January 1975, thousands of reports of unusual animal behavior were received from the general area. In the first three days in February the activity intensified even more and unusual behavior of the larger animals such as cows, horses, dogs and pigs was reported. On February 4, 1975, an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck the Haicheng County, Liaoning Province [10].
The principal focus of research work in China related to animal phenomenon has been on the behavior of pigeons [11]. Biological studies on pigeons determined that a hundred tiny units exist between the tibia and fibula on a pigeon's leg. These nerve units are connected to the central nervous system, and are very sensitive to vibrations. Scientists determined that prior to an earthquake of magnitude 4.0, which occurred in the area of the study, fifty pigeons that had severed connections between the tibia, fibula, and the nerve centers, remained calm before the earthquake, while those with normal connections became startled and flew away.
⦁ In the preface of his book entitled “Earthquakes and Animals: From Folk Legends to Science”, M. Ikeya [12] outlines his motivations of writing the book, that after hearing the miserable stories of the earthquake victems and after being involved of 30 years of doing scientific work in an interdisciplinary field between solid state physics, geology and anthropology, that he is longing for using his background scientific experiences aiming to reducing earthquake casualities. He admitted that his research may look elementary to specialists, but this is inevitable in an interdisciplinary work, where constructive criticism and more refined experiments and theories are most welcome. The book discusses among others in separate chapters on legends of earthquakes (EQ) and animals; followed by elementary descriptions of earthquakes and electromagnetism (EM); experiments on animals showing behavioral responses to EM pulses; a rock compression experiment and animals responses to EM waves produced bt fracture; plant reactions EM exposere; unusual atmospheric phenomena such as EQ light, clouds, fog, rainbows and unusual formations in the sky; laboratory simulation of reports on malfunctioning domestic electricappliances; finally discussion on an automatic monitoring system of unusuasl catfish behavior as an experimental EQ forcasting model.
⦁ Common toads, Bufo bufo, were observed to exhibit a highly unusual behavior prior to a M6.3 earthquake that hit L’Aquila, Italy, on April 06, 2009: a few days before the earthquake the toads suddenly disappeared from their breeding site in a small lake about 75 km from the epicenter and did not return until after the aftershock series [13].
Earthquake sensitivity in animals has been accredited to their ability to sense such delicate environmental changes in electromagnetism. When pressure builds up before an earthquake, the quartz crystal in Earth's interior is deformed and creates an electrical charge. This phenomenon, called the piezoelectric effect, can send electrical signals to animals, who react to a change in the electromagnetism of an area caused by rising stresses on geological faults. Though often subtle and brief, these changes are noticeable at the land surface, in water, in the air, and in the ionosphere. Significant to understanding these diverse pre-earthquake phenomena has been the discovery that, when tectonic stresses build up in the Earth’s crust, highly mobile electronic charge carriers are activated. These charge carriers are defect electrons on the oxygen anion sublattice of silicate minerals, known as positive holes, chemically equivalent to O– in a matrix of O2–. They are remarkable in as much as they can flow out of the stressed rock volume and spread into the surrounding unstressed rocks. Travelling fast and far the positive holes cause a range of follow-on reactions when they arrive at the Earth’s surface, where they cause air ionization, injecting massive amounts of primarily positive air ions into the lower atmosphere. When they arrive at the rock-water interface, they act as •O radicals, oxidizing water to hydrogen peroxide. Other reactions at the rock-water interface include the oxidation or partial oxidation of dissolved organic compounds, leading to changes of their fluorescence spectra. Some compounds thus formed may be irritants or toxins to certain species of animals. Common toads, Bufo bufo, were observed to exhibit a highly unusual behavior prior to a M6.3 earthquake of L’Aquila, Italy, on April 06, 2009. Potential changes in groundwater chemistry prior to seismic events and their possible effects on animals may have taken place.
CONCLUTION
Summarizing the facts outlined in the present presentation with the discussions, earthquake prediction is until to date still non-existent in reality. Much research still needs to be done on this subject, including that related to unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes. Establishing a baseline behavior pattern that can be compared with reactions of various environmental stimuli, and then testing various potential stimuli in the laboratory would be beneficial for developing the desired aspiration. Prior to this, the presence of these stimuli still needs to be researched with regard to precursory phenomena preceding an
earthquake, for if these signals aren’t present in the environment before an earthquake, a connection is inappropriate.
By making people more science literate and alert towards unusual animal behavior and other natural signals in the environment through enrichment of knowledge, anticipation, awareness, and creating social protocols of evacuating people from eartquake hit areas, these social measures have now been significantly improved. Hopefully a set of understanding will emerge soon in terms of scale, intensity, size of affected area, or finally in terms of the occurance or the consequences of the varying degrees of disaster effects. By way of natural disaster service response programs carried out by the government and related organizations, the packet of understanding and knowledge may sharpen the anticipatory capacity of society towards the onset of earthquakes. To improve anticipatory skills, a service program on natural disaster awareness is warranted at the national scene with special consideration of variety in disaster intensity and the sociocultural customs and traditions of the local people through intersectoral and interdisciplinary ways. Integration and collaboration with other parties including the local society: all these efforts should likely be organized readily.
REFERENCES
[1]. Tributch, H. When the snakes awake. (translated from: Wenn die Slangen erwachen.). The MIT Press Computergraphics Department and printed and bound by The Murray Printing Co., USA. 1982. 248pp.
[2]. Earthquake fast facts. What is an earthquake? https://www.google.co.id/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CFMQFjAHahUKEwi-ya_s8u7IAhVS22MKHWoRDNc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stopdisastersgame.org%2Fen%2Fpdf%2FEarthquake_fact-sheet.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGZssmqC9IBb3R0uoTPwS3X7BnaOw
[3]. Miller, Iona and Ben Lonetree, Pre-publication 2013. Earthquake Prediction
Detection of EM Precursors with Applications for Location & Early Warning
iona_m@yahoo.com & side7@cox.net http://seismo.berkeley.edu/
[4]. Perilaku Hewan Sebelum Gempa. 2012. SMK Islam 1 Durenan – Web Blog...
www.smkislam1durenan.sch.id/blog/?p=124
[5]. Prawirodikromo Widodo 2013. Exploring Possible Earthquake Precursors Including Strange Animal Behaviors Prior to Earthquake. FGD AIPI “KEPEDULIAN PENGAMATAN PERILAKU TAKBIASA SATWA MENJELANG GEMPA BUMI DAN BENCANA ALAM LAIN”Komisi IPD dan Komisi Budaya, Hotel IBIS, Slipi Jakarta Barat 22 Mei 2013.
[6]. Wikipedia. Earthquake prediction: pets and animal behavior. http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2oKmNEdHkNWgQ0AIob3RQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTByN2RnanRxBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA3NnMwR2dGlkAw--/RV=2/RE=1447267997/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fEarthquake_prediction/RK=0/RS=LSW7dsdnoNSEbw0JlWMA0OO.FaI-
[7]. Akademi Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia 2014. (D. Sastradipradja, Sri Widiyantoro, Y,T, Winarto & Anny Sulaswatrty. eds). Memaknai Perilaku Tak Biasa Satwa Menjelang Terjadinya Gempa Bumi. Penerbit Titian Pena Abadi, Jakarta Nov. 2014. 156pp.
[8]. Schaal, Rand B. (1988). An Evaluation of the Animal Behavior Theory for Earthquake Prediction, California Geology, vol. 41, no. 2. [www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000072.htm]
[9]. Kirschvink, Joseph L. (2000). Earthquake Prediction by Animals: Evolution and Sensory Perception, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, pp. 312-323.
[10]. George Pararas Carayannis website. The Earthquake of February 4, 1975 in Haicheng, China. https://www.google.co.id/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjABahUKEwim7Yi594fJAhWBtZQKHfUsCM8&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drgeorgepc.com%2FEarthquake1975ChinaHaicheng.html&usg=AFQjCNGdoPK51--h7HnFRbrEbsMieSoukQ
[11]George Pararas Carayannis website. Earthquake Prediction in China. Monitoring Animal Behavior.(Exerpts from Unpublished Manuscripts). https://www.drgeorgepc.com/EarthquakePredictionChina.html
[12]Ikeya, M. 2005. Earthquakes and Animals: From folk legends to Science. World Scientific Publishing. Hackensack NY. 295pp.
[13]Grant, Rachel A., Tim Halliday, Werner P. Balderer , Fanny Leuenberger, Michelle Newcomer, Gary Cyr and Friedemann T. Freund. 2011. Ground Water Chemistry Changes before Major Earthquakes and Possible Effects on Animals. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011 Jun;8(6):1936-56. doi: 10.3390/ijerph8061936. Epub 2011 Jun 1.
文献链接：http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/8/6/1936/
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Keywords:
animal behaviour; earthquakes; positive holes; air ionization; cows
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Source Links.
Part 2: IK1QFK VLF MONITORING STATION, Live data from CUMIANA (TO), NW Italy, south Europe; Maintained by Renato Romero: ( http://www.vlf.it/cumiana/livedata.html )
Part 3: FULL PAPER HERS WORKSHOP, Giving meaning to unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes, Jakarta, 8-9 December 2015 Commission for Culture ( https://www.academia.edu/20394027/FINAL_FULL_PAPER_HERS_WORKSHOP_Giving_meaning_to_unusual_animal_behavior_prior_to_earthquakes?email_work_card=view-paper )
Part 4: Cows Come Down from the Mountains Animals 2014: ( https://www.academia.edu/29699910/Cows_Come_Down_from_the_Mountains_Animals_2014?email_work_card=view-paper )
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